Want the Bad News First? You Got it.

Housing markets ready for a FALL...

Fortune asked Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and real estate valuation company Fiserv Lending Solutions to give their take on what lies ahead for housing in the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas. They predicted that 36 of the 100 biggest markets are expected to see price declines.

The area poised for the biggest fall in 2007 is Stockton (CA), where prices are expected to drop by 7.1 percent and another 5.3 percent in 2008. Next in line is Las Vegas, where the forecasters think prices will sink 6.6 percent in 2007 and another 8.1 percent in 2008.Rounding out the top ten markets expected to fall are Bakersfield, CA (-5.5% in 2007, -6.6% in 2008), Santa Ana/Anaheim, CA (-5.5% in 2007, -4.5% in 2008), Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA (-5.4% in 2007, -4.6% in 2008), Miami, FL (-4.9% in 2007, -7.5% in 2008), Sarasota/Bradenton, FL (-4.8% in 2007, -0.8% in 2008), Oakland, CA (-4.6% in 2007, -2.4% in 2008), Fresno, CA (-4.6% in 2007, -4.3% in 2008) and Fort Lauderdale, FL (-4.3% in 2007, -4.3% in 2008).



And Now for the GOOD NEWS!!



Housing markets predicted to RISE!


Fortune also asked Mark Zandi and Fiserv Lending Solutions to predict which markets would rise in 2007. McAllen, TX is predicted to rise 8.5 percent in 2007 and another 9.8 percent in 2008 and El Paso, TX is predicted to rise 7.1 percent in 2007 and 4.4 percent in 2008. In fact, four of the hottest U.S. home markets forecast for the next year are in Texas.

Rounding out the top ten markets expected to rise are Albuquerque, NM (5.9% in 2007, 0.6% in 2008), Salt Lake City, UT (5.4% in 2007, 1.9% in 2008), Syracuse, NY (4.8% in 2007, 3.6% in 2008), San Antonio, TX (4.8% in 2007, 3.5% in 2008), Rochester, NY (4.5% in 2007, 4.2% in 2008), Baton Rouge, LA (4.5% in 2007, 2.8% in 2008), Fort Worth/Arlington, TX (4.4% in 2007, 3.5% in 2008), and Birmingham, AL (4.4% in 2007, 3.5% in 2008).
requirements. (CNNMoney.com)

"Sexy! Fetching!! Fabulous!!!"
Washington Post (12/02/06) P. F1 ; Festa, Elizabeth


The housing slowdown poses a challenge for brokers who write property descriptions, with experts noting a change in the language used to attract prospective buyers. "It doesn't necessarily become more ornate," explains George Washington University anthropology professor Joel Kuipers. "It can become more direct and hard-hitting and move toward a harder sell." FranklyRealty.com founder Frank Borges LLosa says he scans advertisements for signs of motivated sellers who may be willing to accept lower offers. An analysis by Paul JJ Payack of San Diego-based Global Language Monitor finds that property descriptions increasingly are including the words "embassy-style," "turret," "flow," "livable," and "low maintenance;" while such words as "spacious," "dream," "granite," "architectural," and "sexy" have fallen out of favor this year. Meanwhile, research by University of Chicago economists Steven Levitt and Chad Syverson reveals that homes whose ads feature numerous exclamation points and the words "spacious," "charming," "fantastic," or "great neighborhood" tend to sell for less than the asking price. Regardless of the words used to describe a particular property, agents say buyers remain most influenced by location and price.

What to Do? Best for the Buyer?

===Discount real estate brokers face new hurdle for Web listings===

A revised policy approved by the National Association of REALTORS this week may make it harder for discount brokers to draw attention to homes they list for sale.The policy, approved by directors of the trade group at their convention in New Orleans, involves information about homes that real estate brokers get from their local multiple-listing services, databases that are typically operated by local REALTOR associations. Among other things, the policy reaffirms that brokerage firms that put listings from the MLS on their own Web sites can exclude certain homes.

The revised policy states that brokers must use "objective criteria" if they screen out some listings. The criteria could include location, type of property, compensation offered for agents who find a buyer or the level of service provided by the listing company. Thus, listings from brokers providing limited service for lower fees could be excluded from other brokers' sites.

By contrast, the policy now states that multiple-listing services must make all types of listings available to the Web sites of participating brokers. It would be up to brokers -- not the MLS -- to decide which listings are used on individual brokers' sites. (James Hagerty, The Wall Street Journal Online)

Chris's take: This trend is not good for business, in my opinion...Buyers should be exposed to all points of the market, to include FSBOs, Traditional and Discount Broker inventory.
The real story is this: Many Brokers who provide EXCLUSIVE BUYER REPRESENTATION services need to know how to truly be exclusive!

When a Buyer engages the services of a Broker who provides exclusive representation, there should be a wittten agreement to work together prior to the start of any business or activity on behalf of the Buyer-Client's acquisition. This can be accomplished with a simple agreement outlining the Broker's fee structure, and discussion of how business is transacted under that states's laws and regulations. That structure shall remain the same throughout the relationship(save and except any variations or changes to the agreement).

Example: A home is listed in the MLS by a Discount Broker. The Agent or the Buyer identifies the listing, which happens to be listed for sale by a Discount Broker. Fine...

The Discount Broker's Seller-Client is willing to pay a 1% commission to a Broker working with the Buyer. NO PROBLEM!! The Buyer and their Broker already have an EXCLUSIVE BUYER REPRESENTATION agreement, which defined the relationship to include the Broker's fees. So the Buyer acknowledges before even seeing the property that the 1% will be a 'credit' toward the previously agreed-to fee in the EXCLUSIVE BUYER REPRESENTATION agreement. CAPICHE?

This is elementary...no different than engaging the services of a Listing Broker. There is no work done until there is a LISTING AGREEMENT. Same-Same.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Baby Boomers put their faith in real estate

Rename them the real estate boomer generation: A comprehensive new demographic study reveals that the 78 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964 have a passion for owning real estate unlike any in the nation's history.Ninety-six percent of all boomers believe that owning a home is a very smart financial investment, and nearly 4 out of 5 now own homes, while 1 in 4 boomers owns other forms of real estate besides a primary home. These include one or more vacation or seasonal retreats, acreage or income-earning property.

The value of boomers' primary homes varies sharply by geographic region. Overall, the median market value of their homes nationwide is $181,700. But in the Midwest, the median is $143,400, in the South it's $147,800, in the Northeast it's $215,000 and in the West it's $359,100. One of every 14 boomer households in the Western states owns a home worth $1 million or more.

Home equity plays a huge role in boomers' financial planning and well-being. Their median equity stake - the market value of their real property minus mortgage debt - is $100,000. The median household net worth of boomers - financial holdings plus real estate, minus all debt obligations - was $149,500 in early 2006. However, 23 percent of boomers age 50 to 60 control equity stakes of $250,000 to $1 million or more. Fifteen percent of boomers aged 42 to 49 already have accumulated home equities of $250,000 to $1 million.

Home equity represents a significant percentage of total household net worth for most boomers. Thirty-six percent of 50-year-old to 60-year old homeowners report that the equity in their primary residences is 51 percent to 100 percent of their household net worth. Thirty-eight percent of boomers between 42 and 49 report the same.

Chris: A major way to provide assets for the rising health costs for the boomer generation, but then when is the right time for the boomers to sell based upon the next generation's needs or desire to have similar holdings? Or not?

Existing Home Sales Fall for 5th Straight Month

Sales of existing homes fell 0.5 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales have fallen five months in a row and in nine of the past 12 months. Sales are down 12.6 percent in the past year. It's the lowest sales pace since January 2004.

The median price of an existing home fell 1.7 percent year-over-year to $225,000. It's the first time since April 1995 that median prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis. It's the second largest decline in the 30-year history of the Realtors' survey, exceeded only by a 2.1 percent drop in November 1990. Inventories of unsold homes rose to 3.92 million, a 7.5-month supply at the August sales pace, the most since April 1993. At the August sales pace, it would take 7.5 months to sell the backlog of unsold homes, representing the longest period since April 1993.

Sales of single family homes were unchanged at a 5.51 million annual pace. But this sales pace was 12.3 percent lower than a year ago. Condo sales fell 3.5 percent to 793,000. By region of the country, sales of existing homes rose 1.9 percent in the Northeast to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million units in August.

The median price for a home sold in the Northeast was $271,000, down 3.9 percent from August 2005. Existing home sales in the Midwest rose 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.44 million units with the median price dropping to $176,000, 1.1 percent below a year ago.Sales in the South fell by 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 2.51 million units with the median price falling to $184,000, down 2.6 percent from a year ago. Sales in the West fell by 2.3 percent in August to an annual rate of 1.29 million units with the median price dropping to $345,000, up 0.3 percent from a year ago.

Don't Ask Me Why, But I STILL Think We Are Going to Have A Really Good 4th Quarter! Chris

Housing Trends In The Carolinas

Condo sales, building tepid
Inventory exceeds demand, analysts say
By Jenny Burns
The Sun News
Condominium developers are reacting to a softening market by slowing condo building in Horry County, N.C. - reversing a three-year trend. Single-family building continues to climb.
The number of condo building permits dropped 34 percent in the second quarter to 724 from 1,105 last year, while new condo sales fell 31 percent. Resale condo sales fell 26 percent, according to Market Opportunity Research Enterprises, a regional real estate market research firm in Rocky Mount, N.C.
The slowing sales mean better prices for buyers, and more incentives from builders to sell units.
The sales slowdown is showing up in Brunswick County, N.C., and Georgetown County as well.
"We don't see this as an extended downturn. Although it seems sharp right now, it is sharp only in the very short term as builders try to adjust from the excess of their starts late last year," said Bernard Helm, president of M.O.R.E, which tracks real estate markets in the Southeast.
Tom Maeser, market analyst and president of the Fortune Academy of Real Estate, said he has gotten many calls from developers concerned about the growing condo inventory on the market, which is triple what it was last year.
Maeser said condo developers are cutting back, often because they may have trouble getting the 80 to 100 percent presales that the bank requires for a construction loan.
The single family market is still going strong. Single family building increased 7 percent over last year to 1,535 from 1,433 even though new home sales stayed flat and resale homes fell six percent. Analysts say this could signal future softening in the single family market.
"Builders will have some excess inventory, and that will end up being good news for consumers. They have to work out that inventory and that means softening prices," Helm said.
The drop in resales and flat growth in new home sales - at 980 homes this year and last - signals new home sales may move into negative territory in the future, Helm said. An 11 percent drop in single family lot sales also signals a future drop in sales, he said.
Lawrence Langdale, vice president of Coldwell Banker Chicora Development, said he expects the single family market will remain strong while the condo market will take 18 to 24 months to adjust. He said the drop in single family lots is attributed to loss of investors in the market, since lots, like condos, are more often purchased by investment buyers.
Maeser said it's a good sign if home sales can stay on target with 2005's record sales - as it has done so far. He said the flat growth in new home sales indicates builders are being careful to stay even with last year and not build too many spec homes.
"They don't want to get stuck with a lot of inventory out there," Maeser said.

Brunswick County did not see the sales downturn that Horry County had in the first quarter, but sales in the nation's 28th fastest-growing county did drop in the second quarter.
"It means that the Brunswick market is not quite as volatile," Helm said.
New single family home sales in Brunswick dropped 7 percent to 471 from 506 and resales dropped 24 percent to 820 from 1,078. Single family lot sales also dropped 36 percent to 2,084 from 3,257.
Helm attributes the drop to rising interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages, making it difficult for buyers to purchase a second home. Helm said the Brunswick market is less volatile because it has fewer national builders than Horry County. Brunswick is also seeing a downturn in building condos and single family homes, but townhome building has picked up.
"It's doing a leveling off. We're also seeing county permitting leveling off," said David Sandifer, owner of Holden Beach Properties and Brunswick commissioners chairman. "I think we will see another spurt but this is just a lull."
Sandifer said the high end market in Brunswick is selling well, but there's a lack of moderate income housing. Townhome building is also up in Horry County. Langdale says builders are choosing townhomes and single family for future projects because they are more often purchased by primary homeowners.
Helm said the townhome market has strong demand on the Strand, but it can be easily overbuilt because it's a smaller market than the condo and single family markets.
In Georgetown County, resale homes have declined slightly but new home sales are up 60 percent to 104 from 65. New condo sales are also up from 45 to 151. "Georgetown County is getting ready to do what Horry County has already done. It's good on new but has problems in resales. The decline will happen in new home sales," Helm said. Single family building and lot sales have also dropped off in Georgetown County.
Prices in all three counties continue to show year-over-year increases.
The median price for homes and condos in Horry County increased 16 percent to $189,900 from $162,900.

Home Sales Index

Pending Home Sales Index Points To Easing Market WASHINGTON (September 1, 2006) – Home sales should be leveling out in the months ahead at a lower pace, according to an index based on pending home sales, a leading indicator for the housing market published by the National Association of Realtors®.The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in July, is down 7.0 percent to a level of 105.6 from a downwardly revised reading of 113.5 in June, and is 16.0 percent lower than July 2005.The index is derived from pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed; pending sales typically are finalized within a month or two of signing.An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said there’s a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons. “In looking at year-to-year comparisons, the pending home sales index has been very close in predicting the actual pace of home sales,” he said. “Based on recent changes from a year ago, the index shows existing-home sales should continue to ease after a stronger-than-expected decline in July, but are likely to flatten in the months ahead.”Lereah said psychological factors account for much of the decline in July home sales. “We’ve never seen a general decline in the housing market against a healthy economic backdrop where jobs are being created, the economy in growing and interest rates are favorable,” he said. “Psychological factors are causing some buyers to remain on the sidelines, waiting for prices to stabilize or for more favorable news about the market and the economy. Contributing to this hesitancy is a lot of negative news stories, but in the end we believe that underlying market fundamentals will prevail.”Regionally, the PHSI in the West declined 5.5 percent in July to 103.1 and was 20.3 percent below July 2005. The index in the South dropped 6.4 percent to 122.3 in July and was 11.3 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index fell 7.7 percent in July to 92.1 and was 15.5 percent below July 2005. The index in the Midwest dropped 9.0 percent to 93.3 in July and was 20.1 percent lower than a year ago.The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #* The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer parallel between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons.The forecast will be revised September 7, and existing-home sales for August will be released September 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on October 2.

Downsize, But Make it Special!

Homeowners say "Downsize Me!"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans are carrying a lot of excess weight and desperately want to slim down. No, not their waistlines -- in the size of their homes.

"Steeply deteriorating." "Hard landing." "Kaput." These are some of the terms used by analysts to describe the slowing of the U.S. housing market. And with the glory days of home-price appreciation now over, some homeowners are declaring, "Downsize Me!"

A huge gap between the supply of homes for sale and demand for housing means prices are leveling off -- and could tumble. David Horwitz and his wife, Diane, are the type of homeowners looking to streamline their expenses and unload their roomy homes for more humbler abodes.
The Horwitzes, both semi-retired, just moved into a 1,200 square-foot apartment on the Upper East Side of Manhattan after living in a 2,200 square-foot home in Scarsdale, New York.
"Our property taxes went down by 1,000 percent, the ConEd (bill) was cut by two-thirds and the cost of home maintenance was reduced by at least 50 percent," said David Horwitz. "No gardener, no roofer cleaning gutters, no tree spraying, no snow removal, no exterior painting every six or seven years."

The Horwitzes, who have no mortgage, plan to reside in the apartment for a while, so even if prices fall it is of little significance to them.

Mike Wright and Lin Drury are also enjoying the city life.

Halstead Property, a Manhattan real-estate firm, recently sold the couple a 900 square-foot co-op in the Inwood Hills area of Manhattan. Their new place is smaller than the 1,100 square-foot townhouse they called home in Ossining, New York. A writer by profession, he said his motivation for moving to Manhattan was not just to downsize, but to be closer to his wife's job as an associate professor of nursing at Pace University, New York City and Westchester.

TIMING THE MARKET
Sometimes, though, buyers need to pay up to scale down.

The Wrights' downsizing was their second in two years. Prior to their Ossining home, they enjoyed a 2,200 square-foot condo four blocks from legendary Wrigley Field in Chicago.

"We realized prices would be higher in New York than in Chicago," Mike Wright said. "We didn't expect to get a smaller home while spending about one third more. If we'd bought, say, five years earlier, the price might have been less."

Diane Ramirez, president of Halstead Property, has seen downsizing pick up steam in recent months, especially among suburbanites in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. "Homeowners are probably sensing now may be the right time to get the best price before the market cools further," Ramirez said. "Some of these homebuyers are empty-nesters now finding their homes are larger than what they need and more than they can handle."

In Florida, which saw double-digit home-price gains in the past few years, homebuyers appear more interested in perks. In fact, in the Sunshine State -- long-known as a downsize destination for retirees -- homebuyers are losing interest in size altogether. "People are at the point where they would rather have a luxurious interior than expand," said Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer at Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in Sarasota, Florida. Potential buyers want kitchens designed for entertaining, state-of-the-art appliances, media rooms and home theaters, he said.

"Many of these people have downsized already, and now they want a more luxurious home," he said. "They are more interested in a Jacuzzi than another bedroom."

Gopal Ahluwalia, vice president of research at the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group in Washington D.C., said feedback from consumers and builders indicates the average size of a U.S. home is flattening out.

The average home size went from 1,500 square feet in 1970 to more than 2,400 square feet in 2005. During the same period, the average household size declined, from 3.11 to 2.59, he said.
"Ten years back, most people wanted more space -- now they want more features," Ahluwalia said. "If you look at 35 years of history, from 1970 to 2005, and even early 2006, home size has been continuously rising, except during periods of housing recession."

TAKE MY HOME, PLEASE!

In any event, packing up a house full of belongings -- which could be decades worth of stuff -- and transferring them to another home is a daunting and dreaded task.

A wealthy couple in one of New York City's toniest Fifth Avenue cooperative apartments came up with an unusual solution: They sold two rooms, or about 650 square feet, of their 3,400 square-foot apartment.

Edward F. Johnston III, vice president and director at Brown Harris Stevens, a Manhattan-based real estate firm that specializes in high-end property, advised the couple.

"It was a large space for just the two of them -- they never used the dining room," he said.

"Most high-end luxury buyers are not influenced by a cooling market, but if you own an apartment you always want to sell at the right time."

"They already had one of the biggest apartments on a high floor in one of the top buildings on Fifth Avenue," he said. "Did they really need 9.5 rooms as well?"

Copyright 2006 Reuters

Lighting Trends: Vocab and Tips

Light Done Right !

Lighting can do wonders for the look and feel of a home, both inside and out. Get tips on setting an inviting mood and showing off your home's best features.
BY BARBARA BALLINGER

Artificial lighting does more than brighten a dark room. It sets a mood, draws the eye to special architectural details, and makes a home’s entrance inviting long after the sun has set. Then there’s the decorative angle. With bulbs housed in big colorful paper lanterns, dangly crystal chandeliers, or crisp modern glass pendants, lighting also can be a focal point on its own.
Lighting offers yet another plus: When done right, it helps you showcase your home’s best features and speeds a sale. In this column, you’ll learn about the various styles of lighting fixtures for indoors and outdoors, and get tips on how to use lighting to your greatest advantage when selling a property. Illuminating VocabularyFirst, know how to speak the lighting language. These are the basic lighting terms to know when talking lighting:

Lamp. The light source, sometimes called a light bulb, which can be incandescent, fluorescent, or halogen. Lamps come in a range of colors and wattages.

Incandescent lamp. The most widely used source of illumination for the home, invented by Thomas Edison. It’s inexpensive and can be dimmed, but is inefficient. Light is produced by means of an element heated to the point of incandescence.

Fluorescent lamp. More energy efficient than an incandescent, it comes in many wattages, colors, shapes, and can be dimmed, if it has a dimmable ballast in the unit and a fluorescent dimmer control.

Halogen lamp. An incandescent lamp that contains halogen gases, it offers a crisp white beam, but is more expensive than an incandescent.

LED. A new light source, the light-emitting diode comes as a tiny bulb, gives off little heat, is more energy efficient than a fluorescent, lasts 50,000 to 100,000 hours, and comes in various colors. Downsides: These lights can be expensive, though the price is dropping, and they can be harder to find than regular bulbs.

Compact fluorescent (CFL). Although expensive, these fluorescent lamps conserve energy, last up to 10,000 hours, and have a high-quality color rendering capability, but are still pricey, though less than LEDs.
Light fixture. A complete lighting unit that includes a lamp, a sometimes decorative housing for the lamp, and a connection to the source of electrical power.

Rather than choosing lighting fixtures after a house is built or remodeled, design experts advise home owners plan their lighting look from the get-go so that lighting fixtures will fit in seamlessly with the rest of the home. Built-in lighting may be costly, but it’s worth it, experts say.

Retail lighting showrooms offer an advantage. Many of them have lighting labs, which are room-like vignettes showing how lighting will really look, and are staffed by consultants who will help home owners develop a master lighting plan, sometimes for no fee if purchases are made. Creating a Finished, Sparkling LookThe best lighting plans include three layers: general or ambient lighting that illuminates the entire space; mood lighting to create a special glow in designated areas; and task or accent lighting to play up architectural details, furnishing, or art.

“Lighting makes rooms breathe, adds drama, magic, and romance — and makes home owners feel comfortable,” says New York lighting and furniture designer Sergio Orozco. To decide how much light to use and where to use it, home owners should decide what tasks they’ll perform and what features they want to accent, Orozco says. You also should keep that advice in mind when prepping a home for sale; highlight areas of the home in which you’d like buyers to envision themselves going about daily life. Task lighting can turn attention to a granite countertop or an undermount sink, while accent lighting can make the Colonial-style fireplace stand out.

Here are some more indoor lighting tips from Orozco:

Use a consistent style. Factor in the style of décor and home’s architectural detailing. An elaborately decorated dining room may look better with a period crystal chandelier than a trio of funky colorful pendants.
Be task-specific: Lighting should be selected for tasks at hand. To see a computer screen well, for instance, place lighting behind the monitor so it’s not reflected on the monitor.
View rooms at night. Before making a lighting purchase, know what the room looks like at night, without any natural light.
Try sconces. Consider wall sconces when trying to create an elegant, romantic effect.
Don’t forget the cover-up. Be sure all fixtures have some type of cover so a bulb isn’t visible.
Use individual switches. Install several switches to control lights individually. Don’t forget dimmers.
Light Up the Outdoors. One easy way to expand a home: Make the backyard and deck visible from the house, even at night. Outdoor lighting can accent pools, gardens, trees, walkways, and entryways. Safety is an added bonus.

He also offers these tips for making a big impact outdoors:

Be selective. Rather than light up the entire yard, select a few features to highlight. Shy away from floodlights. Instead, use soft lighting that mimics the moon on a clear night.
Conceal the source. Whenever possible, choose and install outdoor lighting before landscaping is completed so transformers and wires can be concealed. Even if you don’t plan ahead, you should try to safely hide the lighting behind shrubs or bushes so the fixture isn’t apparent — unless it’s a decorative fixture, of course.
Protect against the weather. Select weather-resistant aluminum products.
For flexibility, go portable. Portable lights can be moved throughout the yard whenever you want. One day you can light up a pathway to the gazebo, the next day you can focus on the garden.
Experiment. Think about aesthetics and how different types of plants look in artificial light. It can be difficult to judge, so experiment by placing fixtures in different spots.

Among the hottest new trends:

Tiny lights. Miniature recessed lighting uses MR11 or MR16 low-voltage halogen lamps to illuminate ceilings, shelving, and more. The diameter of these fixtures is less than 3 inches.
Deep finishes. Oil-rubbed bronze, brown, and silver are popular finishes.
Ultra-modern chandeliers. Metal fixtures in modern shapes are hot sellers.
Familiar shapes. Simple geometric lamp shades with beading, embroidery, or fringe.
Pretty stains. Tea-stained glass for pendants and chandeliers is replacing alabaster-colored glass.

I know this was a long article, but think the information is really important for home selling and market preparation...Have a Great Day! Chris

New TV Show about Condotels!!

RISMEDIA, July 10, 2006—The new TV show, Condo Hotels Connection, showcases unique hotel properties that convert a portion of their rooms into condominiums available for public purchase. The show airs on the Dish Network, Direct TV and various web outlets. The show airs Wednesday evenings on DirectTV's Channel 341 at 9:30 pm EDT and Thursday evenings on Dish Network's Channel 223 at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
“The Condo Hotels Connection is designed to give investors more detailed information about our showcase properties,” says Steven Roszell, Owner of CondoHotels.com and HotelsForSale.com. “They will be able to get an inside look at the hotel, check out the floor plan, tour the property, view the amenities and visit the local area, all from the comfort of their own living rooms.” Condo hotels or ‘Condotels,’ convert a portion of rooms into condominiums and make them available for purchase. Once a property is bought, owners can enjoy their new luxury condo and/or choose to rent it. Owners receive a percentage of any rental proceeds and hotel management takes care of maintenance and cleaning.

Condo hotels attract many different types of investors. Clients overseas like being able to secure their money in the U.S. and have their property managed by the hotel. Retiring baby boomers enjoy owning a luxury vacation home with first class amenities. Corporations, too, are considering condo hotels as an alternative to corporate housing due to their prime downtown locations in popular cities and for facilities to accommodate meetings and conventions. “Condo hotel owners enjoy the privileges a first class hotel has to offer, from 24 hour concierge services, five star gourmet dining, recreation rooms and club houses,” says Roszell. “Potential investors can now view these properties in detail on TV and on CondoHotels.com. Tune into Condo Hotels Connection.”

If I can be of service by recommending a Broker for Condo-Hotels in a particular area, please let me know!

Chris
chris.mcnelis@comcast.net

Homeowners Insurance and Market Trends

Affordable Disaster Insurance Essential To Protect American Dream of HomeownershipWASHINGTON (June 28, 2006 )– Recent natural disasters have raised concerns that the cost of homeownership can easily spiral out of reach for the average consumer during times of catastrophe if homeowner insurance isn’t made affordable, the National Association of Realtors® said today in written testimony to the House Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity.

“Options for obtaining and maintaining coverage for natural disasters are dwindling,” said Thomas M. Stevens of Vienna, Va., president of NAR.

“America’s hard-working families deserve a comprehensive federal natural disaster policy that makes natural disaster insurance available and affordable and reduces the circumstances under which insurance companies cancel these insurance policies.”

Recent research conducted by NAR in the state of Florida concluded that the lack of affordable or available homeowners’ insurance contributed to a slowdown in Florida real estate markets, which can contribute to a slowdown in overall economic activity in the region. “When buyers and sellers in high-risk states cannot obtain or retain homeowners insurance, which is necessary for a mortgage, it can slow home sales in those areas,” said Stevens. “A strong housing market is the foundation of a healthy economy, and as a nation, we must safeguard the vitality of the residential and commercial real estate markets.”

As Congress addresses the need for a comprehensive natural disaster insurance policy, NAR stands ready to assist in formulating solutions to this problem. “If the ‘big one’ hits, and people are not insured, then the American taxpayer will pay the price,” said Stevens.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.###

Foreclosure Trends

===Foreclosures rise nationally in May===

I've been contacting my Investor clients who may wish to take a leap at this point based upon trending of interest rates and foreclosures, which will lead to more need for rentals and the up-cycle for income property/passive investing. Getting the houses at the right price in an adjusting market is the tough part for the investor, as Sellers try to maintain a strong average sales price.

A one-month increase of 3,859 residential foreclosures nationwide tracked by Foreclosure.com confirms the existence of a buyer's market in the residential real estate sector, the company recently announced. Foreclosure.com data also indicates that investors are moving quickly to purchase foreclosed properties, with more than 25,000 foreclosed homes being sold in April 2006. Nationwide, there were 27,064 new foreclosures during May 2006 -- an increase of 16.6 percent compared to April 2006.

The total number of foreclosed homes available for sale in the United States climbed 1.9 percent from the previous month, totaling 89,327 during May. Increasing foreclosure rates during May in California and Florida contributed to an overall national upward trend in foreclosed homes, according to new Foreclosure.com data. Additionally, foreclosure rates rose significantly in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi, each of which had been experiencing a lower than normal foreclosure rate following Hurricane Katrina.


Chris

Affordable Housing Trends

Hi everyone, here's the latest and greatest trend we need to be aware of...especially public officials who have the ability to modify growth restrictions, create higher density zoning and demand more affordable housing through incentivizing developers. It is definitely a problem in our area, as the children of current residents cannot afford to return home and live here based upon the average home prices.


"===Affordability problems escalating even as housing market cools===
With interest rates rising and speculative demand cooling, the housing boom is coming under pressure, finds this year’s "State of the Nation’s Housing" report, released by Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. As long as the economy continues to create jobs and builders trim production to match slowing demand, house prices will keep climbing and the housing sector will likely achieve a soft landing. Although house price growth will likely moderate in many areas, sharp drops in house prices are unlikely anytime soon. Even with higher interest rates and home prices crimping affordability, the lure of house price appreciation continues to draw homebuyers to the market. While the national homeownership rate edged down a tenth of a percent in 2005, it increased in the West and Northeast where house price growth was the strongest. In fact, about one million homeowners were added nationally last year. But, the report cautions, five years of unprecedented house price appreciation and decades of land use restrictions that make building affordable housing difficult are adding to widespread housing affordability problems.

From 2001 to 2004 alone, the number of households spending more than half their incomes on housing increased by 14 percent to 15.8 million. The paradox of today’s housing market is that while more people are building home equity than ever before, slow growth in wages for households in the bottom three-quarters of the income distribution is not keeping pace with escalating housing costs. Amidst a housing boom, it is now impossible to build housing at prices anywhere near what low-income households can afford without subsidies. "


Thanks for Reading!
Chris

===Real estate action shifting to middle America===
A new statistical analysis of housing price cycles in 100 major metropolitan areas suggests that real estate action is shifting to areas that didn’t enjoy the recent housing boom. Christopher L. Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions, examined historical housing price movements and concluded that middle America markets like Columbus (OH), Indianapolis (IN), Houston (TX), San Antonio (TX), Memphis (TN), Atlanta (GA), Cincinnati (OH), Des Moines (IA) and Louisville (KY) are due for above-average price increases and home building because of expanding employment bases and moderate housing prices. Cagan also doesn’t believe what he calls the shooting stars of housing booms like most of California, Florida, Washington, D.C., New York City, or Boston are going to incinerate. He simply believes appreciation rates will dwindle to the low single digits or go flat for awhile as incomes catch up.

This is precisely what we heard at a Broker's forum a the Mid Year Conferences hosted by The National Association of REALTORS a couple of weeks ago. Time to buy in Middle America!

Chris

Second Home Trends from NAR

Hi everyone,

I attended the National Association or REALTORS (NAR) Mid Year Meetings and Expo in Washington DC last week. In addition to taking classes toward a Certified International Property Specialist(CIPS), I sat in on the annual meeting of the newest specialty offered by our association: Resort and Second Home Property Specialist (RSPS). In that meeting, I learned about the trends we need to recognize and support with the investment style of Baby Boomers. Anyway, the following article from Realty Times is a great synopsis of these trends from the NAR, and I find it all very important...

New NAR Survey Reveals Motivations Of Second-home Owners
By Blanche Evans
May 15, 2006

It's important for the real estate industry to understand what motivates homebuyers and sellers which is why the National Association of Realtors has worked hard in recent years to understand the differences between types of homeowners, including those who buy more than one property. To help its members obtain more insight into clients and their needs, and thereby improve their services to those clients, NAR has heavily researched the phenomenon of second-home owners.

According to the preface of the 2006 National Association of Realtors Profile of Second-Home Owners, second-home owners are defined as those who "own one or more residential properties, in addition to a primary residence, and who use these properties either for vacation or investment purposes. Although both types of properties share several attributes, vacation homes are properties owned primarily for recreational use by the owner or their family, while investment properties are owned primarily to rent to others."

Ownership of more than one home is increasingly common, notes NAR, due to peak earnings of the baby boomer segment of the population, less-than-stellar returns in other financial assets other than real estate, and popular tax incentives (including capital gains exclusions) and loan programs that favor buying property over other investment instruments. For example, between 2000 and 2005, the value of homes nationwide rose over 50 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index returned just over 2 percent for the same period, says NAR.Older baby boomers dominate the second-home market as vacation-home owners (age 59) and investors (age 55) and most own multiple properties. About six in ten survey respondents own two or more homes in addition to their primary residence.

Observes David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, "Boomers believe in diversifying their assets, and most second-home owners see their purchase as being a better investment than stocks. A surprising majority of survey respondents hold multiple properties, and they are interested in purchasing additional homes."While the U.S. Census Bureau data shows there are 6.8 million vacation homes in the United States and 37.4 million investment units in addition to 74.6 million owner-occupied units, the line appears to be blurring between how owners define themselves:Twenty-one percent of vacation-home owners own two or more vacation homes. In addition, 34 percent of vacation-home owners report they own two or more investment properties.

Lifestyle figures prominently in their choices with half of vacation homes located in resort areas near water or sports features. Distance is about 220 miles; most owners say they drive to their vacation homes. Most homes were in the $300,000 range, less than the value of their primary residence.More than half of investment property owners, 53 percent, own two or more investment homes and 12 percent own two or more vacation homes.Financial gain is the motivator, with most rental properties chosen to generate income and within easy access -- 10 miles. Most homes were in the $200,000 range, lower than the investor's primary residence."We've always known that a certain segment has invested heavily in the rental market, and some people earn their living simply by holding and managing investment property. What we see now is a crossover between largely vacation- and investment-home owners, with people recognizing the value of those investments and pouring more assets into real estate," says Tom Stevens, president of NAR.

Since 2003, two-thirds of second homes have been purchased through a real estate agent, while over four out of five primary homes are purchased using an agent. Thirty-two percent of all vacation-home owners and 24 percent of investment owners paid cash for their property. Combined with mortgages that have been paid-off, 82 percent of vacation homes and 75 percent of investment properties are owned free and clear. Of owners who purchased with a mortgage, the median downpayment on a vacation home was 27 percent and the median downpayment for an investment home was 23 percent.

When asked about the source of downpayment funds for more recent vacation-home owners with loans, who purchased since 2003, half said savings, 23 percent from the sale of other real estate, and 19 percent identified equity or sales proceeds from their primary residence.For more recent investment owners who purchased with mortgages, half said downpayment funds came from savings, 28 percent from equity or sales proceeds of their primary residence, and 18 percent from the sale of other real estate. Surprisingly, considering that one in three buyers in 2004 and many more were second-home buyers in 2005, that the most recent property was purchased a median of six years ago. Most second-home buyers have held additional properties for longer periods.Some believe investors are fleeing the marketplace, that may apply to speculators, but not for buy-and-hold investors. Thirty-five percent of all investment-home owners said they were planning to buy another home within two years. For those who currently own four or more investment units, 64 percent said they planned to buy another property within two years, and 17 percent said they planned to purchase five or more additional properties. Under a third said they planned to sell a property within the next two years.
Copyright © 2006 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Adjusting Market Trends

Just saw this on RealTrends report..."Across the U.S., home prices are falling, with many metropolitan areas expected to see large reductions, according to a report on CNNMoney.com. The city that may see the biggest drop is Las Vegas, where prices are predicted to decrease by 8.2 percent this year, the Web site says. What's in the cards for your local market?

Check out www.CNNMoney.com's forecast for 379 cities across the U.S. While the outlook is grim for many of the housing boom's best performers -- places like New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. -- the future looks bright for several cities that missed out on the action, the Web site says. Among the markets the article reports are on the way up: Houston, Memphis and Rochester (NY). "

We are experiencing a definite adjustment in Southern Maryland, but still hope to stay ahead of the curve on the 'Washington DC market'. There are still people buying and selling, and there will be continued attraction to our market based upon the lifestyle. I'm off to an appointment to show waterfront in 10 minutes...wish me luck!

That's all Folks! Chris

Trendspotting Broker

Trendspotting Broker

Just in...New-home sales in March soared 13.8%, the largest percentage increase in 13 years, the Commerce Department said April 26. The median price of new homes sold, however, fell to $224,000, down 2.2% from what homes were selling for in March 2005.

Existing-home sales rose by 0.3%, marking the second consecutive monthly increase after five months of declines. (It's not a tremendous increase, but perhaps is an indication of the upcoming trends in buying. Our area of Southern Maryland has seen a slight decline in resale value, and an increase from 28 days to 120+ days for list -to-contract time).

The number of homes for sale increased 7.0%, representing a five-and-a-half-month supply at the March sales pace, the largest supply since 1998. Median prices of existing homes are up 7.4% in the past 12 months to $218,000, the smallest price gain since January 2004.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy bounded ahead at a 4.8% pace for the opening quarter of the year, the strongest growth spurt in two-and-a-half years, the Commerce Department reported April 28. The increase marked a vast improvement from the feeble 1.7% annual rate registered in the final quarter of 2005.
Consumer confidence in April, according to the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, rose to 109.6, up from a revised 107.5 in March. April's reading, important because it helps predict future economic activity, reached its highest level in four years. This is really good news.
On April 27 at the Joint Economic Committee of the Senate and House, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lent cheer to U.S. financial markets by saying that a pause in the Fed's tightening program is possible. The Federal Open Market Committee, which makes monetary policy for the Fed, meets May 10.

This week look for updates on personal income and construction spending on May 1.

Need real estate assistance, please visit my web site: www.mcnelisgroup.com. Email me and we'll get started! Residentail and Commerical, Sales and Leasing, National and International Network Brokerage.

Talk Soon!

How's the Market, Chris??

This is a question I answer everyday...and I think RealTrends has a far better response thsan I do:

Buyer demand and seller supply nearly balanced

For the first time in eight years, the overall U.S. housing market is experiencing a rare balance between home buyer demand and home seller supply, according to HouseHunt’s latest “Current Market Conditions” quarterly survey. Only 45 percent of respondents reported more buyers than sellers, compared to a 61%-39% ratio six months ago. Thirty-one percent reported more sellers than buyers; the remaining 24 percent said their markets are almost evenly divided. In the South, the Midwest, the Northeast and in California, the buyer-seller ratio closely matches the national figures. The HouseHunt national survey in the first quarter of 2006 also found:

* It’s taking longer to sell a home in most markets, and the trend is up. Fifty-five percent of respondents said it was taking more than 60 days.
* Seventy-five percent of sellers are still getting at least 95 percent of their asking prices. Only seven percent say they are still getting more than 100 percent. In Southern Maryland, the trend is that Sellers are negotiating about 5.5% on average.
* Home appreciation in the past 12 months is holding firm at about 10 percent. The trend is moving toward single-digit appreciation, however. Fifty-four percent reported five percent or less, 20 percent said five to ten percent, and 26 percent said ten percent or more.
* Eighty-one percent reported a good supply of unsold homes in virtually all price ranges, with inventories steadily growing.
* Multiple offers dropped from 70 percent a year ago to 39 percent in the first quarter of 2006 as demand for unsold homes decreased in many markets.
* Move-up and repeat buyers outnumber first-time buyers by a two-to-one margin in most parts of the country. The margin is three-to-one in California and the South. The national two-to-one ratio has remained constant in the past three to five years despite rapid run-ups in home appreciation.

This applies in Southern Maryland for sure. We are very fortunate, however, to expect continued appreciation over the next 5+ years. Single digit appreciation??? Make you mad because you expect more??? Consider the alternative and smile wide.

Second Homes Sales Hit Record

Second home sales hit a another record!

It is happening...just like the economists have been predicting for 30 years. Boomers are spending the cash-ola. International properties are also becoming a focus, even with the dollar being weak in many situations.

Vacation- and investment-home sales both set records in 2005, with the combined total of second home sales accounting for four out of ten residential transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual report, based on two surveys, shows that 27.7 percent of all homes purchased in 2005 were for investment and another 12.2 percent were vacation homes. All together, there were 3.34 million second-home sales in 2005, up 16.0 percent from an upwardly revised total of 2.88 million in 2004. The market share of second homes rose from 36.0 percent of transactions in 2004 to 39.9 percent in 2005.Vacation-home sales increased 16.9 percent last year to a record 1.02 million from a downwardly revised 872,000 in 2004, while investment-home sales rose 15.7 percent to a record 2.32 million in 2005 from an upwardly revised 2.00 million in 2004.

Time to make it happen...Bring on the Boomers!

A Lofty Life

I saw this article byBarbara Ballinger in the Realtor Magazine Online today...find it interesting history about the Loft Space. My favorite way to exist, for sure...

-What to Look for in a Loft. If clients say they want a loft-style home, find out what features are most appealing to them. Would they consider a new development with an open floor plan and big windows, or do they have their heart set on a traditional warehouse conversion?Here are some features that architects, developers, and real estate professionals say buyers should look for in a loft:
Authentic 19th-century materials. “I like the idea of using hardwood for floors, brick or plaster for walls, and real tin for ceilings rather than ersatz materials,” says Smith-Miller. But he adds that modern living requires certain accommodations that didn’t come with original lofts, such as ample storage and energy-efficient windows.
High ceilings, few walls. Ken Wolfson, owner of Wolfson Lofts, a development company in Las Vegas, says well-executed lofts have high ceilings and few walls “if any.”
Good location and floor plan. Broker Payman Emanian of Premier Realty in Pasadena, Calif., who has seen lofts take off in his city’s downtown and in Los Angeles, says the positive characteristics of other home styles are the key for a good loft, too, such as good location, good construction, and a “wide-open” floor plan.
Quiet. Because high ceilings, hard floors, and big windows in downtown lofts can make interior spaces noisy, Diessner says buyers should look for surfaces that absorb sounds. Smith-Miller says wood ceilings, unfinished brick, and natural stucco all fit that category. One material that doesn’t soften the sound is painted stucco, she explains. Putting rugs down on the floor or tapestries on walls also will help.

Condo Hotels

Trendspotting Broker I saw this today on www.wsjonline.com when a reader asked about the viability of purchasing this type of product in Branson, Missouri.
"Condotels", also known as "condo hotels," are typically condominiums in resort or downtown communities. A condotel looks and feels to visitors like a hotel or resort, but in these resorts, individuals have the opportunity to purchase individual units. Unlike a timeshare, where buyers pay for limited use of a resort, buyers of a condotel own their residence outright and can stay in it, rent it out, or sell it according to their own wishes. In these communities, in-house management companies rent out the units on behalf of their owners in exchange for a percentage of the rental income. Condotel owners and their renters often have use of the resort's amenities, such as concierge, fitness and spa services. Whether an owner can use the amenities while a renting guest is staying in the unit depends on the rules of the particular condotel development. These condos make up a relatively new investment category and account for less than 10% of all vacation homes and investment properties in the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors.
Owning a condotel differs from buying and managing a condo in several respects, says Joel Greene, president of Condo Hotel Center in Miami, a real-estate agency that specializes in the sale of condo hotels throughout the country.
Unlike typical condos built by multifamily housing developers, condotels are often developed by hotel and resort companies -- such as Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Hilton Hotels Corp., The Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company, LLC, and Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts. The price you pay for a unit may be substantially higher than that for a "regular" condo.
For the extra cost, you have access to the services of an in-house management company, which will market and rent your unit out for long or short periods of time (even nightly). The management company's rental program will charge you a portion of your rental income (typically 50%), and will handle the maintenance of your unit, groundskeeping and the clean-up after your renters leave. It will also oversee guest amenities such as pools, tennis courts and golf courses. If you bought a "regular" condo and hired an outside management firm to market and lease your unit to renters, there may be less flexibility when it comes to placing your unit in and out of the rental program, and the firm may not market your unit nationally in the way that a large hotel company might, Mr. Greene says.
When looking to invest in a condotel, research the local real-estate market (e.g., are prices on the rise, or has the real-estate market peaked?). Study regional tourist activity and hotel occupancy, since a condotel unit, especially if it is run by a hotel operator, may be marketed like a hotel room. The location of your unit has the potential of figuring prominently into how profitable an investment it is. Jerry Yeiter, past president of The National Real Estate Investors Association and president of Yeiter & Co., an accounting firm in Houston, says some investors have had success with condotels in Florida and Arizona because these destinations offer desirable tourist activities and because these buyers purchased at a time when area real-estate prices were appreciating. Ask yourself whether Branson can attract tourists. I checked with the Branson Lakes Area Chamber of Commerce and Convention and Visitors Bureau, and was told by Jennifer McCullough, public relations director, that Branson, which is in the Ozark Mountains, draws more than seven million tourists a year. Factoring in visitors who stay in rented vacation condos, the combined hotel and condo occupancy rate in Branson is 62% to 63%, according to the town's chamber of commerce and convention and visitors bureau.
If you buy before a condotel project is fully built, you may be able to purchase your unit at a lower cost, as developers tend to offer the lowest prices pre-construction. You may have to wait until the project is completed, though, before you can rent out your unit. Estimate how much you can fetch per night and how often you need to rent the unit out to bring in enough to cover your mortgage and other expenses. "It's all about the numbers," Mr. Yeiter says. "You'd have to look at the rules and make sure the property would be suitable for an investor." Some management companies, for example, stipulate how often you must make your place available and even how it should be decorated.

I think this is a good explanation, and will watch for more trends toward this type of product in resort/high volume tourism areas. Outta Here-TSB.

Baby Boom Housing Trends:"65+ in the United States", a study commissioned by the National Institute on Aging (NIA,) of The National Institutes of Health is now a living document. The study, designed to get an overview of the health and socioeconomic status of aging Americans, found the following trends:
The U.S. population age 65 and over is expected to double in size within the next 25 years. By 2030, almost 1-out-of-5 Americans, some 72 million people, will be 65 years or older. The age group 85 and older is now the fastest growing segment of the U.S. population.
The health of older Americans is improving. Still, many are disabled and suffer from chronic conditions. The proportion with a disability fell significantly from 26.2 percent in 1982 to 19.7 percent in 1999. But 14 million people age 65 and older reported some level of disability in Census 2000, mostly linked to a high prevalence of chronic conditions such as heart disease or arthritis.
The financial circumstances of older people have improved dramatically, although there are wide variations in income and wealth. The proportion of people aged 65 and older in poverty decreased from 35 percent in 1959 to 10 percent in 2003, mostly attributed to the support of Social Security. In 2000, the poorest fifth of senior households had a net worth of $3,500 ($44,346 including home equity) and the wealthiest had $328,432 ($449,800 including home equity).
Florida (17.6 percent), Pennsylvania (15.6 percent) and West Virginia (15.3 percent) are the "oldest" states, with the highest percentages of people age 65 and older. Charlotte County, Fla., (34.7 percent) has the highest concentration of older residents and McIntosh County, N.D., (34.2 percent) ranks second.
Higher levels of education, which are linked to better health, higher income, more wealth and a higher standard of living in retirement, will continue to increase among people 65 and older. The proportion of Americans with at least a bachelor’s degree grew five-fold from 1950 to 2003, from 3.4 percent to 17.4 percent; and by 2030, more than one-fourth of the older population is expected to have an undergraduate degree. The percentage completing high school quadrupled from 1950 to 2003, from 17 percent to 71.5 percent.
As the United States as a whole grows more diverse, so does the population age 65 and older. In 2003, older Americans were 83 percent non-Hispanic white, 8 percent black, 6 percent Hispanic and 3 percent Asian. By 2030, an estimated 72 percent of older Americans will be non-Hispanic white, 11 percent Hispanic, 10 percent black and 5 percent Asian.
Changes in the American family have significant implications for future aging. Divorce, for example, is on the rise, and some researchers suggest that fewer children and more stepchildren may change the availability of family support in the future for people at older ages. In 1960, only 1.6 percent of older men and 1.5 percent of women age 65 and older were divorced; but by 2003, 7 percent of older men and 8.6 percent of older women were divorced and had not remarried. The trend may be continuing. In 2003, among people in their early 60s, 12.2 percent of men and 15.9 percent of women were divorced.
The 65+ report is a project of the NIA’s Behavioral and Social Research Program, which supports the collection and analyses of data in several national and international studies on health, retirement, and aging. The program’s director, Richard M. Suzman, Ph.D., suggests that, with five years to go before the baby boom turns 65, "Many people have an image of aging that may be 20 years out of date. The very current portrait presented here shows how much has changed and where trends may be headed in the future."
While the report didn't go into housing, the results should impact community and housing design beyond the Universal Design features available today that eliminate or moderate difficulties in such ordinary tasks as turning off light switches and grabbing a bar to get up out of the bath. With a higher divorce rate, and lower remarriage rate for older females, resulting in an estimated 3 men for every single 10 females according to the Census, new types of housing could emerge that provide a variation on community or communal living for older single, divorced or widowed females.
Boomers are already notable in housing for their wealth and ability to buy second homes, which is driving the vacation home marketplace to new heights every year, but for their primary homes, what will they do -- remain near work centers, and if so, in what kinds of housing?
Will they age in place in their ranch-style ramblers or sell everything and move to a high-rise in the sky? How about a little waterfront in Southern Maryland listed with The McNelis Group, LLC?

Chris McNelis 

Trendspotting Broker

Trendspotting Broker

This is really good news for the Commercial sector, not to mention another benchmark we can use to stay ahead of the curve...boring but important.

"NAR LAUNCHES LEADING INDEX FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET:WASHINGTON (February 22, 2006) – The National Association of Realtors® launched a new leading indicator for the commercial real estate market today that shows an increase in commercial brokerage activity can be expected over the next six to nine months.David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the new index shows the broad recovery in commercial real estate markets will continue. “In fact, the index increased in nine of the last ten quarters – this trend implies that commercial activity of net absorption and the completion of new buildings will remain solid through the third quarter of this year.”The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity is a new tool to assess market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. “The index incorporates 13 variables that reflect future commercial real estate activity,” Lereah said. “Our methodology follows a well-known process of looking at changes in individual indicators and then weighting them appropriately in a process that results in a single indicator of future market activity.”The index is designed to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate. NAR reviewed a wide variety of indicators, examined the relationships of indicators that demonstrated a historical impact on commercial real estate, and modeled a forward looking index based on historic trends. Although individual indicators sometimes move in opposite directions, together they offer a better indication of future market activity. View Commercial Leading Indicator BackgrounderQuarterly data for 13 selected series were reviewed back through the first quarter of 1990. The modeling demonstrated a change in commercial brokerage activity that could be seen two quarters later as measured by net absorption in the industrial and office sectors, and the value of building construction put-in-place on completion of retail, office, warehouse and lodging structures. An index of 100 is defined as the level of commercial real estate market activity during the first quarter of 1990, the first period to be analyzed.During the fourth quarter of 2005, the commercial leading indicator was at an index reading of 117.6, up 0.8 percent from 116.7 in the third quarter; the reading was 1.6 percent above an index of 115.7 in the fourth quarter of 2004.Net absorption in the office and industrial sectors during the third quarter of 2006 is likely to be in the range of 125 million to 140 million square feet. The value of new commercial buildings reaching the market is projected to be $4.5 billion to $6.0 billion higher than the $252.4 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2005.The 13 series in the index include industrial production, the REIT (real estate investment trust) price index, NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) total return, personal income minus transfer payments, jobs in financial activities, jobs in professional business service, jobs in temporary help, jobs in retail trade, jobs in wholesale trade, initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers’ durable goods shipment, wholesale merchant sales, and retail sales and food service.Separately, attitudinal results from NAR’s Commercial Practitioner Survey in February show most respondents rate current business activity as moderately improving or holding steady; 12 percent said it was deteriorating.On balance, to find the right space or property for a client, 36 percent of practitioners said there is limited ability and another 36 percent said there are fewer choices but that it is not a major problem.When asked about the relationship between local rents and operating costs, 32 percent said costs are rising faster than rent, and 45 percent said both were rising at about the same rate; nearly a quarter said rents were rising faster.Regarding expectations for business conditions over the next year, 74 percent of practitioners are optimistic and 9 percent are pessimistic.In terms of market impact, 51 percent said private local investors are having a significant impact; 49 percent said developers, 25 percent end users, 17 percent private national investors and 11 percent said foreign investors.With market fundamentals improving in most markets, 57 percent said new local tenants, users or start-ups were creating demand for space, 45 percent identified existing tenants or user expansion, and 27 percent said new national or international tenants or users.More than 100,000 NAR members offer some level of commercial service, with 57,000 specializing primarily in the commercial real estate market.The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #The next commercial real estate market forecast is scheduled for release on March 15, and the next commercial indicator index will be released May 23.Information about NAR is available at http://www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data, charts and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research."

Trendspotting Broker

Trendspotting Broker

Sorry for the last entry...still learning what not to do.

Anyway, I've been more involved with people who are buying and selling businesses. It is interesting how every type of business requires a distinct vntage point from a gross income perspective, and what makes it tick.

Liquor sales: I learned today that the smaller, more portable items such as pints of beer, half pints of liquor, have a 30-32% profit margin, while beer and liquor in larger quantities have about a 20-25% margin... Out of that one must pay rent, utilities, payroll, etc.

The client I gleaned this perspective from was referred to me by an Attorney friend after the client was dismayed with a couple of 'business brokers' who, in his opinion, inflate values too much and were not good facilitators.

I think the price one should be willing to pay must recignize tht intangible 'good will' if it is attributable to the continuing success of a subject business, but the business should be a machine already. Then, enhancing the value based upon your ability to revitalize small pieces of the business and add services or products while renegotiating your position to maintain other product lines(or not) adds directly to the bottom line...or at least forces one to discover new avenues and new trends within their business sector.

The speed bumps in business simply force you to discover newer and better products. But never forget the marketing, especially the BUZZ.

Always learning, I think. Chris

Chris

Trendspotting Broker

Trendspotting Broker

I've been gathering data about Tenant In Common(TIC)ownership...and this was just posted today about regulatory concerns with Real Estate Brokers handling these types of deals. I think it is just a matter of time before it is figured out for Broker involvement, because it is like the Time Share was back in the 1970's, which was finaly regulated and brought mainstream big time in the 80's...Here's the info:

"Tenant in Common Transactions Under Scrutiny: How You Can Advise Regulators There is an implied concern that some of these investments that are sold as a pure real estate transaction may in fact be a sale of a security and therefore subject to state and federal securities law. Securities law may prevent Realtors from being fairly compensated for services rendered in a TIC transaction. A TIC is a form of real property ownership where a purchaser owns an undivided fractional interest in real property. Because of the confusing aspects of TIC transactions, NAR has issued two publications – the TIC Hot Topic Report, and the TIC Brochure - providing guidance to NAR members on the risks and rewards of the TIC marketplace. The publications provide an overview of the market, an analysis of the factors that separate securitized TICs from real estate TICs, the conflicted regulation of securitized TICs between state real estate laws and state and federal securities laws, and the risks to the investor and the real estate professional. NAR is in on-going discussions with the Securities and Exchange Commission to clearly define a process by which real estate professionals may participate, and be compensated, in the brokerage of securitized TIC interests. "

We shall see...just another trend to keep track of.

Where do you go first when it's time to look for housing or real estate investment opportunities? The web? Magazines? Newspapers? A friend in the industry? A mortgage professional? Fill me in on your favorites.

Greetings

I've just begun the newest part of my business interest...a blog about spotting trends in the real estate industry. I think it is one of the best parts of being in general brokerage...I am required to be aware of personal goals and desires shared by clients in order to be results-driven. Preferences, service requirements, communication styles, new technology and more.

Spotting trends and tapping into the buzz about a new focus is important...these are little morsels of info that generate new attitudes and expectations for consumers. Besides, it's cool to stay in touch with new stuff.