5.31.2006

===Real estate action shifting to middle America===
A new statistical analysis of housing price cycles in 100 major metropolitan areas suggests that real estate action is shifting to areas that didn’t enjoy the recent housing boom. Christopher L. Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions, examined historical housing price movements and concluded that middle America markets like Columbus (OH), Indianapolis (IN), Houston (TX), San Antonio (TX), Memphis (TN), Atlanta (GA), Cincinnati (OH), Des Moines (IA) and Louisville (KY) are due for above-average price increases and home building because of expanding employment bases and moderate housing prices. Cagan also doesn’t believe what he calls the shooting stars of housing booms like most of California, Florida, Washington, D.C., New York City, or Boston are going to incinerate. He simply believes appreciation rates will dwindle to the low single digits or go flat for awhile as incomes catch up.
This is precisely what we heard at a Broker's forum a the Mid Year Conferences hosted by The National Association of REALTORS a couple of weeks ago. Time to buy in Middle America!
Chris

5.22.2006

Second Home Trends from NAR

Hi everyone,

I attended the National Association or REALTORS (NAR) Mid Year Meetings and Expo in Washington DC last week. In addition to taking classes toward a Certified International Property Specialist(CIPS), I sat in on the annual meeting of the newest specialty offered by our association: Resort and Second Home Property Specialist (RSPS). In that meeting, I learned about the trends we need to recognize and support with the investment style of Baby Boomers. Anyway, the following article from Realty Times is a great synopsis of these trends from the NAR, and I find it all very important...

New NAR Survey Reveals Motivations Of Second-home Owners
By Blanche Evans
May 15, 2006

It's important for the real estate industry to understand what motivates homebuyers and sellers which is why the National Association of Realtors has worked hard in recent years to understand the differences between types of homeowners, including those who buy more than one property. To help its members obtain more insight into clients and their needs, and thereby improve their services to those clients, NAR has heavily researched the phenomenon of second-home owners.

According to the preface of the 2006 National Association of Realtors Profile of Second-Home Owners, second-home owners are defined as those who "own one or more residential properties, in addition to a primary residence, and who use these properties either for vacation or investment purposes. Although both types of properties share several attributes, vacation homes are properties owned primarily for recreational use by the owner or their family, while investment properties are owned primarily to rent to others."

Ownership of more than one home is increasingly common, notes NAR, due to peak earnings of the baby boomer segment of the population, less-than-stellar returns in other financial assets other than real estate, and popular tax incentives (including capital gains exclusions) and loan programs that favor buying property over other investment instruments. For example, between 2000 and 2005, the value of homes nationwide rose over 50 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index returned just over 2 percent for the same period, says NAR.Older baby boomers dominate the second-home market as vacation-home owners (age 59) and investors (age 55) and most own multiple properties. About six in ten survey respondents own two or more homes in addition to their primary residence.

Observes David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, "Boomers believe in diversifying their assets, and most second-home owners see their purchase as being a better investment than stocks. A surprising majority of survey respondents hold multiple properties, and they are interested in purchasing additional homes."While the U.S. Census Bureau data shows there are 6.8 million vacation homes in the United States and 37.4 million investment units in addition to 74.6 million owner-occupied units, the line appears to be blurring between how owners define themselves:Twenty-one percent of vacation-home owners own two or more vacation homes. In addition, 34 percent of vacation-home owners report they own two or more investment properties.

Lifestyle figures prominently in their choices with half of vacation homes located in resort areas near water or sports features. Distance is about 220 miles; most owners say they drive to their vacation homes. Most homes were in the $300,000 range, less than the value of their primary residence.More than half of investment property owners, 53 percent, own two or more investment homes and 12 percent own two or more vacation homes.Financial gain is the motivator, with most rental properties chosen to generate income and within easy access -- 10 miles. Most homes were in the $200,000 range, lower than the investor's primary residence."We've always known that a certain segment has invested heavily in the rental market, and some people earn their living simply by holding and managing investment property. What we see now is a crossover between largely vacation- and investment-home owners, with people recognizing the value of those investments and pouring more assets into real estate," says Tom Stevens, president of NAR.

Since 2003, two-thirds of second homes have been purchased through a real estate agent, while over four out of five primary homes are purchased using an agent. Thirty-two percent of all vacation-home owners and 24 percent of investment owners paid cash for their property. Combined with mortgages that have been paid-off, 82 percent of vacation homes and 75 percent of investment properties are owned free and clear. Of owners who purchased with a mortgage, the median downpayment on a vacation home was 27 percent and the median downpayment for an investment home was 23 percent.

When asked about the source of downpayment funds for more recent vacation-home owners with loans, who purchased since 2003, half said savings, 23 percent from the sale of other real estate, and 19 percent identified equity or sales proceeds from their primary residence.For more recent investment owners who purchased with mortgages, half said downpayment funds came from savings, 28 percent from equity or sales proceeds of their primary residence, and 18 percent from the sale of other real estate. Surprisingly, considering that one in three buyers in 2004 and many more were second-home buyers in 2005, that the most recent property was purchased a median of six years ago. Most second-home buyers have held additional properties for longer periods.Some believe investors are fleeing the marketplace, that may apply to speculators, but not for buy-and-hold investors. Thirty-five percent of all investment-home owners said they were planning to buy another home within two years. For those who currently own four or more investment units, 64 percent said they planned to buy another property within two years, and 17 percent said they planned to purchase five or more additional properties. Under a third said they planned to sell a property within the next two years.
Copyright © 2006 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

5.13.2006

Adjusting Market Trends

Just saw this on RealTrends report..."Across the U.S., home prices are falling, with many metropolitan areas expected to see large reductions, according to a report on CNNMoney.com. The city that may see the biggest drop is Las Vegas, where prices are predicted to decrease by 8.2 percent this year, the Web site says. What's in the cards for your local market?

Check out www.CNNMoney.com's forecast for 379 cities across the U.S. While the outlook is grim for many of the housing boom's best performers -- places like New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. -- the future looks bright for several cities that missed out on the action, the Web site says. Among the markets the article reports are on the way up: Houston, Memphis and Rochester (NY). "

We are experiencing a definite adjustment in Southern Maryland, but still hope to stay ahead of the curve on the 'Washington DC market'. There are still people buying and selling, and there will be continued attraction to our market based upon the lifestyle. I'm off to an appointment to show waterfront in 10 minutes...wish me luck!

That's all Folks! Chris

5.01.2006

Trendspotting Broker

Trendspotting Broker

Just in...New-home sales in March soared 13.8%, the largest percentage increase in 13 years, the Commerce Department said April 26. The median price of new homes sold, however, fell to $224,000, down 2.2% from what homes were selling for in March 2005.

Existing-home sales rose by 0.3%, marking the second consecutive monthly increase after five months of declines. (It's not a tremendous increase, but perhaps is an indication of the upcoming trends in buying. Our area of Southern Maryland has seen a slight decline in resale value, and an increase from 28 days to 120+ days for list -to-contract time).

The number of homes for sale increased 7.0%, representing a five-and-a-half-month supply at the March sales pace, the largest supply since 1998. Median prices of existing homes are up 7.4% in the past 12 months to $218,000, the smallest price gain since January 2004.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy bounded ahead at a 4.8% pace for the opening quarter of the year, the strongest growth spurt in two-and-a-half years, the Commerce Department reported April 28. The increase marked a vast improvement from the feeble 1.7% annual rate registered in the final quarter of 2005.
Consumer confidence in April, according to the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, rose to 109.6, up from a revised 107.5 in March. April's reading, important because it helps predict future economic activity, reached its highest level in four years. This is really good news.
On April 27 at the Joint Economic Committee of the Senate and House, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lent cheer to U.S. financial markets by saying that a pause in the Fed's tightening program is possible. The Federal Open Market Committee, which makes monetary policy for the Fed, meets May 10.

This week look for updates on personal income and construction spending on May 1.

Need real estate assistance, please visit my web site: www.mcnelisgroup.com. Email me and we'll get started! Residentail and Commerical, Sales and Leasing, National and International Network Brokerage.

Talk Soon!